A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
A recent SBI Economic Research report indicates that the significant gap between credit and deposit growth, currently over 530 basis points, is likely to persist if geopolitical risks and external supply shocks continue. However, an improvement in deposit growth is anticipated with inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
Indian stock market indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a decline in early trade due to surging crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia. Foreign fund outflows further contributed to the negative sentiment.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation marginally eased to 9.78 per cent in July 2026, down from 9.87 per cent in June, primarily due to a cooling in the prices of fuel, power, and food items, marking the first month-on-month drop under the new 2022-23 base year.
The government has withdrawn most provisions of the emergency natural gas supply regulation order imposed during the West Asia conflict after liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following a ceasefire.
The public has benefited from this decline in crude oil, which has translated into lower prices of petrol and diesel.
Indian stock market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Tuesday, buoyed by a drop in crude oil prices, a rally in global markets, and strong buying in IT stocks.
In a move that may boost the Indian hydrocarbon industry and bring more investments into the sector, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday decided to give marketing freedom to domestic crude oil producers, allowing them to sell petroleum to any company in the local market. The move is set to be beneficial for major crude oil producers, such as state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India, and private sector majors like Vedanta's Cairn Oil and Gas and Reliance Industries. As of May 31, India was dependent on imports for 86 per cent of its crude oil consumption; domestic production sufficed the remaining 14 per cent demand.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, tracking a global rally fueled by US President Donald Trump's declaration of an end to the war with Iran and a subsequent drop in crude oil prices.
Indian refiners have access to only limited Iranian volumes compared with Russian oil, and even the barrels on offer come with 'too many hassles'.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to a strengthening dollar, high crude oil prices, and foreign fund outflows amid geopolitical uncertainties.
After four consecutive months of withdrawals, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) injected Rs 20,200 crore into Indian equities in July, driven by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings, and a more favourable global environment.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have significantly increased their investment in Indian equities, infusing Rs 23,544 crore in August, driven by improving quarterly earnings, a stable rupee, and positive market prospects.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled over 1 per cent for the third consecutive day, driven by a sharp rally in crude oil prices, massive selling in IT stocks, and unabated foreign fund outflows amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
India's crude oil production fell 2.15 per cent in October as state-owned firms produced less but, natural gas output rose by a quarter on the back of output from KG-D6 fields of Reliance-BP, government data released on Tuesday showed. Crude oil production dropped to 2.51 million tonnes in October, as output from fields operated by Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) dipped. While ONGC produced 4 per cent less crude oil at 1.64 million tonnes, OIL output dropped 1.46 per cent to 2,53,000 tonnes.
The escalating conflict in West Asia has resulted in 19 ships carrying essential energy resources for India being stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to the country's energy supply.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a downturn in early trade, primarily influenced by a dip in HDFC Bank shares, persistent outflows from foreign funds, and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Track Sensex, Nifty performance.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The combined market valuation of four of India's top-10 most valued firms eroded by Rs 87,960.29 crore last week, with Bharti Airtel experiencing the largest decline, amidst a bearish trend in the equities market.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
India's domestic passenger vehicle sales experienced a robust 24.6 per cent year-on-year increase in June, propelled by favourable government policies like income tax relief and repo rate cuts, alongside resilient rural demand, even as global crude oil prices pose potential cost pressures.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant slump in early trade, mirroring a sharp decline in global equities and a fresh spike in crude oil prices, exacerbated by simmering tensions in West Asia and a global unwinding of the AI-led rally. Track how sensex, Nifty fared on June 8.
'Rather than deploying all their money at once, investors should invest gradually.' 'A staggered approach is the better strategy because volatility is likely to persist.'
The government has raised the windfall profit tax levied on domestically produced crude oil as well as on the export of diesel and ATF, in line with firming international oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been increased to Rs 2,100 per tonne from Rs 1,700 per tonne, the order dated January 2, said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuel like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The Indian government has dismissed concerns that the use of E20 fuel could affect the validity of vehicle insurance policies, stating that the ethanol blending programme remains safe, consumer-friendly, and economically beneficial.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged in early trade, driven by a rally in IT stocks and tempered expectations of US Federal Reserve monetary tightening following softer-than-expected US jobs data. Track Sensex, Nifty on July 3.
Amidst global energy market volatility driven by the West Asia crisis, Russia has proposed increasing its crude oil and natural gas supplies to India, strengthening bilateral energy ties and aiming for USD 100 billion in annual trade by 2030.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw a significant rebound in early trade, driven by a decline in crude oil prices. This drop followed US President Donald Trump's announcement of progress in negotiations with Iran towards an agreement to end the war, leading to a temporary pause in 'Project Freedom' to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has strongly defended India's decision to purchase Russian crude oil, stating that the country's energy choices are based on cost and availability, and highlighting the West's 'hypocrisy' in criticising India while historically supplying weapons used against it.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
